The Impact of Russian Aggression on Regional Treasury & FX

Report date: 
18 Oct 2022

Commentary

This call was held at a point in the conflict where Ukraine had made serious inroads into Russian held territory, and there was a lot of talk about the potential use by Russia of nuclear weapons. So, one of the questions was whether treasurers are expecting a nuclear escalation, a spread of the conflict, and what to do to prepare for it.

 

None of these concerns were mentioned. For most companies, the business in the countries surrounding Russia and Ukraine is minimal. The bigger concern is, and remains, the impact on the business outlook in the rest of the world, the impact of increasing interest rates, inflation, and logistics issues – though logistics seem to be improving. 

 

Instead, most participants continue to do business in Russia – mostly because they are in industries which benefit from the health and humanitarian exceptions to sanctions. In other cases, the business is essentially local, but uses the corporate brand – this means care must be taken when withdrawing. Having an exception from sanctions still leaves issues:

  • Even if your currency transactions are legal, a lot of banks refuse to handle them, because they do not want to take the risk of dealing with the country.
  • Many banks withdraw, reducing the choice of service providers. There was a lot of discussion about Citi – most participants use them, but there has been some confusion as to whether they are staying. The message to all participants is that they are.
  • Even when cross border transactions are processed...please log in to continue reading
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Contributors: 

This report was produced by Monie Lindsey based on a Treasury Peer Call chaired by Damian Glendinning

Topics covered in this report: 
Bank Relationships, Dividends, Supply chain, Sanctions, Compliance, FX
Service providers discussed in this report: 
Citi, Raiffeisen, Rosbank

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