Taxonomy term

Political Risk

Corporate Treasury Approaches to Managing Geopolitical Risk

Read more about Corporate Treasury Approaches to Managing Geopolitical Risk

Report date:

8 Mar 2024

Commentary

Geopolitical risk, or simply political risk, is a major challenge for treasurers. We had all become used to viewing Iran, North Korea and Myanmar as off limits, and handling issues in Venezuela and Argentina. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalating trade tensions between the US, the EU and China have made the world a more dangerous place.

This call was scheduled at the request of one member, who was looking for ways to measure political risk, or at least get external indicators they can use to convince management to tread carefully. More on that below. But we quickly moved to discussing what to do, once you have identified the risk. After all, if management wants to do business in a risky country, treasury has to make it happen.

Generally, peers participated in senior level discussions on strategy and objectives, but felt their main contribution was through managing the balance sheet:

Cash repatriation: the main way treasurers can reduce immediate risk is by repatriating restricted and trapped cash. This often involves a cost: withholding tax in the case of dividends, or creating accounting losses on currency conversion. Tax departments and CFOs have to be persuaded this is the right thing to do. Several participants regularly circulate the amount of trapped cash by country to the business, and even the board of directors: this helps change attitudes.
Change the business model: this is more difficult, but it can involve moving to invoicing in hard currency to reduce FX risk, or moving to selling through remarketers. One participant has moved from a single manufacturing location in China to multiple production sites in different regions. This was partly due to COVID disruptions and supply chain concerns, but it also addresses the potential exposure due to increasing tensions with China.
Change the funding structure: in some markets, participants have moved from funding via intercompany loans from offshore locations to onshore external borrowing. This reduces the net exposure – provided the company is willing to walk away from the local debt in a crisis. In turn, that raises a series of issues – but at least, it gives more options. It is often more expensive.
Manage the accounting exposure: some

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Topics covered in this report:

Cash Repatriation, Funding, Political Risk

Service providers discussed in this report:

BNP Paribas, Economist Intelligence Unit, Brown & Brown, Bloomberg

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Treasury & FX in Colombia & Peru

Read more about Treasury & FX in Colombia & Peru

Report date:

25 Nov 2021

Commentary

It is a rare pleasure to have a call on Latin America where the conclusion is that things work well, but that is the case with these two countries. This is even better news, given the turbulent pasts both countries have.

Of course, our Latin American treasurers always enjoy a lively discussion, and this session was no exception. It is still Latin America, so things will never be 100% plain sailing.

Generally, funding is no problem. Extensive use is made of intercompany loans, and currency hedging is only complicated by the bouts of volatility. One participant has also encountered issues with the value dating of hedges.

The relationships with local banks are strong, and there is often resistance to centralising banking relationships. This usually results in a mix of local and international banks – the local banks are viewed as being necessary, anyway.

As this is Latin America, taxes and the bureaucracy can be onerous. In Colombia, people tend to use trustees to get round a financial transaction tax – the same tax exists in ...please sign in to continue reading

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