Commentary
Turkey has been in some form of economic crisis for a long time. CXC discussions on it always highlight the many challenges: high inflation, funding issues, FX shortages etc. At the same time, there has always been an array of workarounds: the country typically avoids official regulatory measures. For example, there have never been official exchange controls – it was just that banks had very limited access to foreign currency, and had to prioritise their customers.
Last year, following the elections, Turkey adopted some very conventional – and painful – economic policies. The currency devalued by 35% between June and July 2023 – from 19 to the USD to 26. The benchmark interest rate was fixed at 50%. Prior to this, there had been a series of unconventional measures: official interest rates were low, but banks were required to buy bonds issued by the Turkish government for between 60% and 200% of the value of any loan they made, effectively killing the loan market. With the new measures, the situation seems to have stabilised: foreign currency is now freely available, the exchange rate continues to decline, but is more stable. It is now significantly less difficult to obtain local funding. Inflation has reduced: it was at about 85%: it is now closer to 30%.
Interestingly, three other countries which have been in very difficult positions have adopted similar austerity measures: Argentina, Egypt and Nigeria have all been through significant devaluations and greatly increased interest rates. This leads to short term economic contraction, but seems to be having positive results for the fundamentals.
How has this affected business and the people? The consensus on the call was that the situation was difficult, but improving. Some participants were wondering whether they should change their business model to reduce the risk, but all feel it is a country and an economy which is too important to ignore.
Specifics:
- Cash management operations have been normalised. One participant has excess foreign currency, which they place in an offshore bank account in Abu Dhabi – this process has been in place for some time.
- Banks are once again willing.....
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