Cash Repatriation

Commentary

With recent events, there has been less media focus on China. The news related to China has been about trade tensions with the US, the extent of China’s relationship with Russia, and the issues related to the real estate sector. Even COVID has tended to fade into the background, with the economic impact of the extended lockdowns and the disappointing pace of the recovery.

The purpose of this call was to find out how our members are finding the business and regulatory environment in China, and the extent to which their operations and treasury management are being impacted.

The overwhelming response was that it is very much business as usual – both in the good and bad respects. Participants on the call come from a variety of industries: while some, especially those facing the consumer, are seeing a significant slowdown, some continue to see growth. Everyone saw current difficulties as being transient, and nobody was looking to reduce their presence. The call quickly got into the operational challenges China presents – it was the familiar scenario of regulations which are always changing, are often not totally clear, and surprises.

• Chinese banks. One participant reported that one local bank, ICBC, had proved to be very proactive in helping their company automate several processes, using new technology. This is a big step forward, as Chinese banks have traditionally preferred to avoid this kind of engagement with foreign companies. 
• At the same time, there was a feeling that, as their traditional real estate lending activities have come under pressure, several Chinese banks are now more willing to lend to foreign companies.
• At the same time, most participants prefer to limit their relationships to the core foreign banks: this is becoming easier, as foreign banks are now able to provide services, such as the basic account, which used to be reserved to local banks. Several participants are reducing their banking relationships, usually focusing on core – international – banks.
• Also, participants reported that FX payments are being approved more quickly, and regulations seem to be easing – there was a lot of discussion about the requirement to bring the balance

Commentary

In our last call on Colombia and Peru in October 2021[https://www.complexcountries.com/treasury-fx-in-colombia-peru], there were concerns about political uncertainty. Since then, the president of Peru has been impeached and a left wing former guerrilla elected president of Colombia has been beset by scandals. So how has this impacted the companies operating in the countries?

In short, not a great deal. Currency volatility continues to be a challenge and reduced foreign investment has hampered growth. But in terms of politics the markets are relatively sanguine as the respective governments stumble along without enough power to make radical changes and the long run potential remains.

From a Latin American perspective both countries are relatively easy to operate in for treasury, with local teams coping well with the challenges.  

Colombia:

• Most companies repatriate cash via dividends and intercompany loans. The process involves a lot of admin, but it works.
• Funding is relatively easy but also entails a lot of bureaucracy and it is essential to get communications with DIAN (the tax & customs agency) accurate.
• Some companies avoid the transaction tax (‘cuatro por mil’) by parking cash in fiduciary accounts for 24 hours. It saves money but, again a lot of form filing.
• The currency volatility also caused one participant to have their local credit dramatically reduced
• Citi is the

Commentary

Egypt has been through a tumultuous period recently, with significant economic and political turmoil, severe foreign currency shortages, and a generally difficult operating environment. In this situation, it is a relief that the country is making the headlines a lot less, so it was time to see where things stand.

Overall, the message which emerged is that the country is indeed stable, but that the recovery is taking longer than hoped. The main issue appears to be an IMF package which was agreed at the end of 2022, but whose implementation seems to be bogged down by disagreements over the timetable. Two key elements of the agreement are the liberalisation of the FX market, and the sale of some 32 companies which are currently owned by the government. Unsurprisingly, the government is seeking a longer time to execute the company sales, while foreign investors are waiting for the inevitable currency devaluation before making any significant asset purchases. It was not clear how the country would get out of this impasse.

This leaves our participants to manage through the current situation. Many are in industries which receive preferential treatment for FX, such as pharmaceutical or food related industries. However, even they frequently struggle to get FX allocations. Also, they run a variety of business models, with offshore sales in hard currency and imports for onshore sales in EGP both being common.

The picture which emerged was interesting:

• The allocation of FX is not decided by the central bank. It is the decision of each bank. However, when a bank runs out of foreign currency, it can no longer process foreign remittances.
• The main source of the country’s foreign currency is Egyptians working abroad, especially in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. 
• This means it is better to work with banks who have

Please Login or Register to access the rest of this free commentary.

If you haven't previously Logged in but receive commentaries via email, simply use your email address to change your password to Log in.

Commentary

This Treasury Peer Call took place a few days after the announcement that India had officially overtaken China as the most populous country in the world. Given the increasing speculation that India might also replace China as the world’s fastest growing major economy, it seemed opportune to get a view on how things are developing.

All participants are bullish about their businesses in the country. Several already have significant operations, and most see major opportunities. The good news is that several participants are generating meaningful profits and cash – the bad news is that this creates issues in terms of cash investment and repatriation. And, of course, India is India – there are always plenty of regulations to navigate.

Main points and concerns:

• For those companies who are generating cash, it is a challenge to invest it. Most retain a conservative approach, which means safe investments – these typically return a rate which is below inflation.
• Cash repatriation is not without issues. The main vehicle is dividends: these attract withholding tax (the rate varies according to the jurisdictions), and are subject to complex tax rules. Cross border pooling is not allowed, and intercompany loans are subject to central bank approval.
• Within India, cash pooling is