Citi

Commentary

Egypt has been through a tumultuous period recently, with significant economic and political turmoil, severe foreign currency shortages, and a generally difficult operating environment. In this situation, it is a relief that the country is making the headlines a lot less, so it was time to see where things stand.

Overall, the message which emerged is that the country is indeed stable, but that the recovery is taking longer than hoped. The main issue appears to be an IMF package which was agreed at the end of 2022, but whose implementation seems to be bogged down by disagreements over the timetable. Two key elements of the agreement are the liberalisation of the FX market, and the sale of some 32 companies which are currently owned by the government. Unsurprisingly, the government is seeking a longer time to execute the company sales, while foreign investors are waiting for the inevitable currency devaluation before making any significant asset purchases. It was not clear how the country would get out of this impasse.

This leaves our participants to manage through the current situation. Many are in industries which receive preferential treatment for FX, such as pharmaceutical or food related industries. However, even they frequently struggle to get FX allocations. Also, they run a variety of business models, with offshore sales in hard currency and imports for onshore sales in EGP both being common.

The picture which emerged was interesting:

• The allocation of FX is not decided by the central bank. It is the decision of each bank. However, when a bank runs out of foreign currency, it can no longer process foreign remittances.
• The main source of the country’s foreign currency is Egyptians working abroad, especially in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. 
• This means it is better to work with banks who have

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Commentary

Saudi Arabia occupies a pivotal, and highly unusual, place in global politics and the world economy. As the world’s largest exporter of oil, and the holder of the second largest reserves of oil and gas, it is an essential part of the global economy – and has traditionally been relatively aligned with western and capitalistic countries. At the same time, it is a profoundly religious absolute monarchy, which practices a particularly conservative brand of Islam. This has always placed limits on its co-operation with western countries – limits which are being tested even more than usual in the current environment.

The current situation is particularly complex, as was clear in the call. Saudi Arabia has always imposed severe restrictions on foreign companies and banks, requiring local partners, and imposing local signatories and approvers for most, if not all, transactions. Limitations on where foreigners could live, and what they could do, have meant that many expatriate employees preferred to live with their families in Dubai, and commute to Saudi for the work week. However, the country has recently launched “Vision 2030”, which aims to open up the country and prepare it for a post oil future. This ranges from promoting tourism, allowing women to drive cars, and potentially allowing alcohol sales in specific places, to mega projects such as building a new city in the desert. It also includes pushing MNCs to transfer their regional headquarters to the kingdom. At the same time, foreign ownership is now allowed, either using a Saudi sponsor (with fees), or by paying 20% taxes. 

These developments are viewed positively by the participants – though several cautioned that there are many conflicting undercurrents in Saudi society, and the situation can always change at short notice. In all cases, Saudi Arabia is a large, and profitable, market, to which all our participants are fully committed, irrespective of the operational challenges.

Treasury practicalities:

• Nearly all participants sell into Saudi from an offshore location, usually in USD. The currency is pegged to the USD, and there are no exchange controls, so things generally work well.
• Several participants have opened local branches or subsidiaries, either to provide services or to act as sales offices, or technical offices to manage regulatory issues.
• To participate in the mega projects being run by the government, it is a requirement to transfer any regional headquarters operation to the kingdom. There is direct competition with other countries in the region for this, particularly the UAE.
• Saudi regulations state that the bank signatories and transactions mus

Commentary

This Treasury Peer Call took place a few days after the announcement that India had officially overtaken China as the most populous country in the world. Given the increasing speculation that India might also replace China as the world’s fastest growing major economy, it seemed opportune to get a view on how things are developing.

All participants are bullish about their businesses in the country. Several already have significant operations, and most see major opportunities. The good news is that several participants are generating meaningful profits and cash – the bad news is that this creates issues in terms of cash investment and repatriation. And, of course, India is India – there are always plenty of regulations to navigate.

Main points and concerns:

• For those companies who are generating cash, it is a challenge to invest it. Most retain a conservative approach, which means safe investments – these typically return a rate which is below inflation.
• Cash repatriation is not without issues. The main vehicle is dividends: these attract withholding tax (the rate varies according to the jurisdictions), and are subject to complex tax rules. Cross border pooling is not allowed, and intercompany loans are subject to central bank approval.
• Within India, cash pooling is

Commentary

Europe meets Asia in Istanbul – and Turkey is very much at the crossroads when it comes to a lot of the cultural, geopolitical and even military issues which are currently roiling the world. Despite all the turmoil, Turkey remains a relatively open and thriving economy, and it is a significant market in its own right for several participants.

Turkey has been struggling for several years with a high inflation rate, and this is causing issues for all the participants. Despite this, business seems to continue and be reasonably healthy for all of them. The high inflation rate causes a series of problems, but all participants are able to fund their businesses and repatriate cash. The challenges:

• High interest rates, though these have now fallen to a little over 10%
• Inflation officially at 85% - but unofficial estimates are up to 150%
• Scarcity of bank funding: given the above, it is not surprising that banks are not willing to lend – especially as the central bank now requires a deposit of 30% of the amount lent, at 0% for the first 30 days.
• Some participants have moved to cross-border intercompany funding, onshore intercompany loans between entities, and equity, as required.
• One participant is looking at cross border intercompany funding from a subsidiary in a third country which has excess cash. The documentation is proving very challenging.
• Accounting: officially, Turkey has hyperinflation (over 100% in the last three years), which means the HQ’s currency has to be used as the functional currency for accounting, under both IFRS and US GAAP.
• Hedging: